Earth Sciences New Zealand, the agency that monitors scientific research, has released an outlook showing how vulnerable countries in the central Pacific, such as Samoa, could be to an increase in the number of cyclones expected to affect countries in the southwest Pacific from next month, November, when the cyclone season begins.

Tokelau, parts of Kiribati and Samoa are also among the areas forecast to be vulnerable.

Sixteen countries in the southwest Pacific, including Samoa, are covered, and seven to eleven named cyclones could head towards these countries, including the islands to the north and northwest of the Pacific and the central Pacific. 

The outlook released by Earth Sciences New Zealand is based on data from New Zealand’s weather service, the University of New South Wales in Australia and Pacific weather offices.

The key message of the announcement is for countries to stay prepared and alert, as El Niño weather conditions are already affecting some Pacific countries, including Samoa.

The cyclone season begins on 1 November and ends in April next year, 2027.